Recent polling has made it clear that despite the refusal by some on the Right to acknowledge the GOP Law of Primogeniture, former Gov. Mitt Romney is well on his way to becoming the next Republican presidential nominee.  Romney, by essentially coming in second to McCain in the race for the GOP nod in 2008, and by consolidating establishment support behind his candidacy early and often, has positioned himself as heir apparent and the Republican electorate seems to agree that in 2012, it's Mitt's turn.  Last week's California poll shows Romney well ahead of his rivals in the delegate-rich Golden State that helped put McCain over the top.  That suggests that he's probably the voters' choice in other populous, diverse states with large urban centers like New York, New Jersey, and Florida, places that have a disproportionate impact on the nomination process due to the Republicans' winner-takes-all formula.  Moreover, Romney's status as a Massachusetts politician would have almost certainly guaranteed him a win in the Granite State last time around had it not been for New Hampshire's special relationship with John McCain.  A McCain-less race in 2012 means a likely win for Romney in an early and important state.  In short, Romney's runner-up status has positioned him in a way that provides him with a national base that transcends regional politics and that is especially strong in the states that really count.  That's not a bad position to be in.

But won't the deep bench of GOP talent entering the 2012 field against the backdrop of an embattled Democratic president give Romney a run for his money?  Possibly.  But most of Romney's opponents are niche candidates, either ideologically or regionally, with few filling the one niche --- the Ron Paul/Glenn Beck small government niche --- that could upend the traditional GOP nomination process at this point. 

An examination of the potential field demonstrates the structural advantages of Team Romney.  If Mike Huckabee runs, he will do so as the Southern candidate and the Evangelical candidate.  Tim Pawlenty is almost certainly running, and he shares the Evangelical niche, and also fills the role of Pragmatist candidate.  Along with T-Paw in the Pragmatist niche is Mitch Daniels, while fellow Midwesterner Mike Pence is running as the True Conservative candidate, along with Jim DeMint, who, in turn, is competing with Huck to be the Southern candidate.  Moving eastward, Rick Santorum is running as the Nanny State candidate, Rudy may throw his hat into the ring as a Small Government candidate and as the Florida candidate, and Scott Brown may run as the, er, Scott Brown candidate.  Meanwhile, Bobby Jindal may run as a Southern/True Conservative candidate, while Sarah Palin, if she runs, will almost certainly do so as a Small Government candidate.  And looming large is the possibility of General David Petraeus running as the National Security candidate.  With a field like this, isn't it true that anything can happen?

In a word: no.  That's because that the vast majority of these niches are unable, on their own, to deliver the presidential nomination to their favored candidates.  In order for a candidate to win the nomination, he or she has to garner widespread acceptance amongst Republicans of every stripe and in every region, which is why the heir apparent last time around, John McCain, despite being the most despised Republican amongst Republicans since Nelson Rockefeller, bested various niche candidates including Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani.  Huck's status as Evangelical candidate and Southern candidate in 2008 ensured victories in Iowa and in the Deep South, but once outside of these regions, he found himself with a very low ceiling.  Similarly, Rudy promised that nothing else would matter as long as he was the Florida candidate, because a victory in Florida would allow him to initiate a domino effect where he would win lots of other large, delegate-rich states with similar demographics and thus the nomination.  That was all good and well until the momentum of the early McCain, Huck, and Mitt victories caused Rudy's Sunshine State candidacy to collapse.  I suspect that the variety of niche candidates that are expecting to use their various niches to pave their way to the GOP nomination will find themselves with similar limits when the votes are actually cast.

The one sort of candidate that could give Romney a run for his money is someone who could effectively unite the Ron Paul/Gary Johnson wing of the small government movement with the Sarah Palin/Rudy Giuliani wing.  That's because the sheer level of grassroots energy on the Small Government Right is palpable at this point, and while some of that energy may dissipate if Republicans have a good 2010, there will still be lots of excited Paulites and Tea Partiers willing to crawl over broken glass to unseat Obama.  The problem that these folks have is that they lack a natural leader who can unify their movement.  Ron Paul and Gary Johnson are too dovish for the Tea Partiers, while the pro-life elements of both groups would oppose Rudy, and the Paulites still haven't forgiven him for his attack on their leader the last time around.  Paul Ryan is too green and Sarah Palin seems more interested in advocacy through media at this point than in running for public office.  If Sarah does decide to run, she'll have to prove that she is the small government champion that the grassroots is hoping for, and not just another member of the NR/Weekly Standard/RNC establishment. 

If Sarah doesn't run, or if she runs and crashes, that seems to clear the path for a Romney nomination.  That's because Romney at that point would be the heir apparent, as well as the only candidate acceptable to Republicans of all stripes, and would be running in an environment where the Paulites and Tea Partiers are not consolidated behind one candidate.  I suppose you could argue that there's nothing that makes candidates running on pragmatism and competence like Tim Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels unacceptable to any particular region or bloc of GOP voters, but in each of those cases, the candidate in question would be charged with the task of convincing Republicans that he is preferable to Romney, while all Romney has to do is trust that GOP voters will pull the lever for Mitt because it's "his turn," something that in the past has been a pretty safe bet.

Final thought: Romney's biggest threat at this point may be Texas Gov. Rick Perry.  Some would argue that the governor just bested the Texas version of Mitt Romney in last week's gubernatorial primary, and Perry is a brash small government guy who is still undefined enough to allow him to bring together both the Paul/Johnson and Palin/Giuliani wings of the small government movement.  There's nothing that makes Perry unacceptable to any wing of the GOP, and a big victory in November could launch a presidential bid that attempts to harness the Tea Party energy across the nation in an effort to take the nod.  Perry does have to try to avoid being tarnished by the sins of the last GOP presidential nominee from Texas though, and would have to run closer to fellow Texan Ron Paul than to the Bush/Rove Texas establishment.